Xiao-Li Meng, Whipple V. N. Jones Professor of Statistics at Harvard and Founding Editor-in-Chief of Harvard Data Science Review, was inspired by a student to combine wine and statistics—leading to insights far beyond what they ever expected.

From wine tastings to data science, Xiao-Li Meng explores how statistics reveals simplicity in complexity – one glass, experiment, and insight at a time.

Wine, statistics & serendipity: A Harvard journey

Seeking simplicity in statistics, complexity in wine, and everything else in fortune cookies

Bordeaux 2020 is the third in a trilogy of outstanding vintages for the region – but, talking to producers, one thing is abundantly clear: the year was not easy. Covid-19 aside, the year’s unusual conditions demanded attention in the vineyard. “It was a marathon,” Noëmie Durantou Reilhac of Ch. l’Eglise Clinet told me. Nicolas Audebert of Chx Canon and Rauzan-Ségla was more frank: “It was a f***ing tough year.” “Extreme” is the word that comes up time and again. It was both wet and dry, mild and hot – a contradiction in terms throughout, demanding producers’ attention. As Jean-Sébastien Philippe at Lafite described it, 2020 was “un millésime de vigneron" (a winemaker’s vintage). The winter and spring were mild and wet, replenishing water reserves and kicking off the growing season early. It was so mild – with temperatures on average around 2˚C warmer than usual – that there were already signs of budbreak at L’Eglise Clinet on 4th February. Flowering was early and homogenous; at Ch. Margaux it was a full 15 days ahead of normal, Managing Director Philippe Bascaules noted, bringing the entire season forward. This early start led to fears of possible frosts, but (unlike in 2021) the temperature barely dropped and the threat to crops was minimal. Overall, 2020 saw more rain than any other year in the last decade – however it fell almost entirely over the winter and spring, with subsequent concentrated bursts in May and August. This relative downpour was essential for what was to come, for the summer was parchingly dry. As Pierre-Olivier Clouet of Cheval Blanc explained, the spring provided the vines with enough reserves to survive the long, dry summer.  But the damp also brought mildew pressure – a particular challenge for those working organically or biodynamically. “On 12th May we had to spray copper by hand over 25 hectares of vineyards, as it was too wet to put tractors in the vineyards,” said Thomas Duroux at Ch. Palmer. Justine Tesseron at Ch. Pontet-Canet explained how dry breaks in the weather helped them avoid the damage seen in 2018, allowing them to get into the vines and spray. The mildew seemed to impact the Right Bank less, although work was still essential to avoid losses. Then in mid-June, a switch flicked and the weather shifted dramatically, becoming warm and dry. “It’s like only having two seasons instead of four,” Nicolas Glumineau of Ch. Pichon Comtesse explained, something he fears is becoming the new normal with climate change. The warm dry conditions concentrated the berries and then, as the vines gradually started to
become more stressed in August, slowed the vines’ growth. This was, Noëmie Durantou Reilhac of Ch. l’Eglise Clinet noted, important – helping to slow the sugar accumulation, and allow the phenolics to catch up. But the vines were stressed. “Vines are living beings and we ask them to go through a lot. If you were drinking a gallon of water every hour for a month and then had no water for two months…” Noëmie Durantou Reilhac said. The team at Pichon Comtesse was starting to worry as the leaves started to turn yellow and the vines were visibly struggling. But relief arrived in mid-August, with rain on
the Left Bank (with the least falling on Saint-Julien) and Saint-Emilion, although Pomerol had to wait until 1st and 2nd September for the weather to break briefly and provide the water the vines sorely needed. “This really refreshed the grapes, diluting the sugar content, but early enough to allow for concentration to build up in the berries,” Bascaules at Margaux explained.  From the end of August to late September, the mercury rose even higher. At Pichon Comtesse, with temperatures reaching 40˚C, Glumineau started to become nervous about the wine they’d be able to make, visibly seeing the berries reduce in size each day during the last two weeks of September. Cool nights were key at this time, preserving acidity and aromatics, despite the heat of the day. The harvest itself was fast and furious. Thanks to the homogenous flowering, everything ripened at once – and quickly. The whole season remained 10 to 15 days earlier than normal, and picking of the whites kicked off in mid-August, while the Merlot started coming in from early September, then the Cabernet from the middle of the month. Everything was in before the close of the month. Timing were similar to 2003, 2015 or 2019. Nicolas Glumineau noted that rainfall at the very end of September – falling on 25th and 26th – was of particular importance, helping “polish the tannins” on the last few plots of Pichon Comtesse’s Cabernet Sauvignon.

“It was a textbook perfect vintage,” Damien Barton Sartorius, Director of Léoville and Langoa Barton said – the only thing that upsets him is the volume of wine produced. The dry conditions broadly led to smaller berries with thick skins, and therefore less juice. In general, yields are a little down on 2019 and 2018, around 10 to 25% in most places, with the smallest crops in Saint-Julien (down 20% at Léoville and Langoa Barton, 25% at Ch. Ducru-Beaucaillou), and Sauternes and Barsac.  “It was a crazy, crazy vintage,” said Omri Ram of Lafleur. Rushing through the growing season like this, it’s clear it was, but producers aren’t shy about the results, nor should they be. The wines are superb – more classical than those of 2018 or ’19, with some comparing them to the wines of 2016, ’15 or ’09. Read more about the vintage in our overview or commune-by-commune breakdown

The 2018 and 2019 vintages might be tough acts to follow, but Bordeaux 2020 seems to be more than up to the job. We spoke to producers about the year’s extreme conditions – and the stunning results it produced

Chx l’Eglise Clinet, Cheval Blanc, Pichon Comtesse and more on the extraordinary conditions that shaped the 2020 Bordeaux vintage

Exploring the Bordeaux 2020 growing season

Bordeaux wine vintage 2020: a tale of two halves

Last month, our team spent a whistle-stop week in Burgundy sampling the 2020 vintage. Here we break down the vintage by producer, from north to south, with a summary of how each fared and our favourite wine from the tasting table.

2020 Burgundy en primeur vintage assessment after tasting Georges Lignier, Dom Fourrier, Domaine Lamarche, Henri Boillot, Paul Pernot and more

Burgundy 2020 by producer

Burgundy 2020: by producer

The red wines in 2019  Whether you’re in Pauillac or Pomerol, Saint-Estèphe or Saint-Emilion, 2019 is a vintage big in colour, concentration and tannins.The wines are packed with fragrance and flavour, with a welcome level of freshness that producers had not anticipated in the weeks leading up to harvest.   Left Bank   “I would say that 2019 is great for all varieties,” says Philippe Bascaules, Managing Director of First Growth Ch. Margaux. “Merlot is in the style of 2018 – concentrated and very ripe; Cabernet Sauvignon is in the style of…2019! Fresh, elegant, and very well-balanced between opulence and vivacity.” But if he had to make comparisons, he sees a combination of characteristics of the lauded 2009 and 2010 vintages: “2009 for the texture, concentration and silkiness; 2010 for the freshness.”   It’s a similar story a little further up the Médoc in the appellation of Saint-Julien. “Tasting the wine at this stage reminds us of the 2009 vintage with its sunny characteristics and that creamy unctuosity but the drop in temperatures from the beginning of harvest time gives this vintage a freshness in the expression of these aromas,” says Sara Lecompte-Cuvelier of Ch. Léoville Poyferré.   The blending components of a Bordeaux wine go beyond the grape varieties and picking dates. It’s also important to take into account the soils. On the Left Bank, the cooler, clay-rich soils provided grapes with greater freshness while the gravel-dominant sites provided richer, riper fruit. In Saint-Estèphe, the teams at Chx Montrose, Calon Ségur and Phélan Ségur, credit the appellation’s higher proportions of clay for negotiating the prolonged dry spells and bringing balance to these ripe wines.   Right Bank   On the Merlot-dominant Right Bank, you can expect plenty of colour, abundant tannins and generous fruit. However, the good pH levels have maintained a greater sense of freshness than the sumptuous 2018s, providing balance.  In Saint-Emilion, producers on the limestone plateau and clay-limestone hillsides, home to its most revered vineyards, fared better than those on the free-draining sandy plain during the long dry periods. Expect a little more freshness than in 2018 – site and picking date dependent – but with plenty of dense, rich fruit.    Maylis Marcenat, whose family estate Clos de Sarpe sits on clay-limestone, says: “2019 is going to be a very good vintage for us, a classic Bordeaux vintage but with greater smoothness,” she says. “It has slightly less alcohol than 2018 and greater balance. The tannin texture reminds me of 2016 but it has a freshness of its own. It’s a vintage that reminds me of 2001 and I am sure of its aging capacity.”   In neighbouring Pomerol, the appellation delivers on its classic rich, dark fruit and trademark chocolatey tannins. Omri Ram, Ch. Lafleur’s winemaker, believes that 2019 however is fresher than 2015 and not as massive. While the two vintages have similar concentration of tannins and a high level of solids, 2019 is much more communicative than the 2015 was at this early stage. “2015 is a difficult vintage to taste young but the 2019, although sharing similar characteristics, is more open but has the same seriousness, the same depth, creaminess and balance,” he says.  The dry white wines  in 2019  ”It is great in white and red. This is the strength of this vintage. The white wines show a great richness: [they are] fresh, balanced and suave,” says Olivier Bernard, the head of Domaine de Chevalier, a Graves estate renowned for both its whites and reds.   In the University of Bordeaux’s annual vintage report, Professor Laurence Gény-Denis and his team said: “Despite an exceptionally hot summer that was sometimes incompatible with the greatest dry white vintages, the absence of early and excessive water stress produced perfectly balanced, aromatic grapes with good acidity and not overly high sugar levels. Their composition is ideal for producing wines with outstanding ageing potential.”   It was a relatively early kick-off for the dry white harvest to avoid stressing the vines, which means a very small reduction in average alcohols versus 2018 at around 13.7%.The team at Ch. Smith Haut Lafitte explained that the Sauvignon Blanc, which makes up 90% of its lauded white blend, has an element of fatness – but not at the expense of freshness. While the average pH of Bordeaux white in 2019 is marginally higher than in recent vintages, it remains low at a pretty zesty 3.2.  The sweet white wines in 2019  For sweet wines, things were a little more challenging. Dry, warm weather delayed the onset of noble rot but rainfall in late September allowed perfectly ripe grapes to develop botrytis cinerea and berry concentration rapidly increased. The majority of the grapes were harvested in several days, just before heavy rains in mid-October.   Eric Kohler of Domaines Barons de Rothschild, which owns Ch. Rieussec in Sauternes, adds: “September’s rains were very beneficial – as they were in 2017 and a first window opened on 8th October to pick perfect botrytised grapes for the Grand Vin – with a special mention to some lovely Muscadelle. It then became more challenging due to development of sour rot/acid. The team worked like gold diggers to really sort the best possible grapes until 21st October.”  Comparing 2019 to other vintages  Comparing vintages is like comparing children. Every vintage, like every child, has its own DNA but that doesn’t stop us looking for similarities and differences, providing an anchor in a sea of claret.   The scientists at Bordeaux University do the hard graft, compiling data from around the region to give us in-depth analysis of the region and its vital statistics. Put your lab jacket on, here comes the science.   The data shows that Cabernet Sauvignon berries were the smallest since 2010. Packed with tannin and colour, these small berries have created wines that are deeply coloured and rich in tannin. The tannins are also ripe and the fruit is rich with high sugar levels at harvest equating to some fairly weighty alcohol levels on a par with 2018 and 2010. Acidity is critical to maintain balance and compares with 2016 while pH in the Cabernet Sauvignon – critical to stability and another indicator of freshness – is lower than 2018 and sits in the ballpark of 2015 and 2016.   Based on the wines coming out of their stable from Pomerol to Pauillac, Eric Kohler, technical director of Domaines Barons de Rothschild’s Bordeaux estates, which includes Lafite-Rothschild, Duhart-Milon and Nénin, says: “Our gutfeel is that just as there will always be a discussion between 2009 and 2010, that we will have the same between 2018 and 2019; 2018 being closer to 2009, and 2019 being closer to 2010.”   When it comes to Merlot, once again the dry, sunny weather has led to small berry sizes; tannin levels are sandwiched between the impressive 2018 and 2015/2010s. The ripeness levels are comparable to 2010 and 2016, but the total acidity is a touch lower than these two vintages.   Jean-Baptiste Bourotte of Pomerol’s Clos du Clocher, whose 2019 is comprised of 70% Merlot and 30% Cabernet Franc, says, “The question is if the alcohol is fairly high – for Bordeaux, because other regions have long been used to these levels – can we still find the balance and elegance that makes classic Bordeaux? On the earlier plots, the liveliness has been maintained with a pH of 3.6 and the tannins are ripe and abundant, which means there’s no perception of high alcohol in the mouth and you’ll find that the 2019s are balanced in a true-to-type Pomerol way.”  

The 2019 vintage in Bordeaux is special. Although, with the Covid-19 outbreak, we were unable to make it out to the region, we interviewed producers and tasted wine samples in the UK. Here’s everything you need to know about the year 

Everything you need to know about the 2019 vintage in Bordeaux – a year that produced exceptional wines

Full report on the 2019 vintage in Bordeaux

Bordeaux 2019 vintage report

“We’re just sort of making it up as we go along,” Andy Erickson says to me on our transatlantic Zoom call, shrugging and smiling as we talk about his and his wife’s project, Favia. It’s not necessarily what you’d expect this star consultant winemaker to say – having helped craft the likes of Screaming Eagle, Harlan, Dalla Valle, Staglin, Mayacamas and more. It’s hard to believe that anything this man does is a fluke of fate. And yet this self-effacing tone is a thread that runs throughout my conversation with Erickson and his wife Annie Favia.  Favia brings her own, similarly enviable resume, having worked at Kongsgaard, Corison and for many years alongside cult viticulturist David Abreu, giving her unparalleled experience of Napa’s finest vineyards. She and Erickson met at a dinner party almost 30 years ago, instantly hit it off, and within six months were making their first barrel of wine together, tucked in the corner of their garage. That first experimental barrel of 1996 Russian River Pinot Noir (of which they still have a few bottles) was the start of something that grew as they and their family did, and the Favia label was born in 2001, although it was a couple of years before there was more than a barrel or two to sell.   The concept behind the brand is simple: “It’s our expression of what we think Napa Valley wine should be,” explains Erickson. But Favia has also been a project where they could experiment, push the envelope and play with the “pioneering freedom” (in Erickson’s words) that Napa offers. The flexibility to purchase grapes from different areas, pick and choose varietals, and work with no constraints in the winery is something they clearly savour.  The project focuses on Cabernet Sauvignon and Cabernet Franc – the latter in particular a grape they both love. Inspired by the likes of Ausone, Cheval Blanc, the reds of the Loire and Dalla Valle’s Maya (a wine that Erickson now makes), they were keen to play with the varietal, crafting two Cabernet Franc blends – Cerro Sur and La Magdalena. As Annie Favia explains, “[Cabernet Franc] allows you to make one kind of wine if you pick it at one time, and then a completely different wine if you pick it at another time.”  More than anything, however, Favia is about expressing a sense of place and connection to the land. “When I was growing up, my mom was an avid gardener and I spent a lot of time with her in the garden,” says Annie. “So it's always been really kind of home to me.” It’s unsurprising perhaps that their Coombsville property is far from just a vineyard and winery, but a homestead of sorts. “We really love to grow all kinds of things,” Annie says eagerly. While vines are the main crop, Annie also farms a range of other plants – largely for her loose-leaf tea company, ERDA, but also fruit and vegetables for the family table. “Growing different crops allows you to look at grapevines in a different way,” she explains.   For the Favia label, they work exclusively with fruit from Oakville and Coombsville, and while Oakville is arguably one of the most prestigious appellations in Napa, Coombsville is less well known. Fruit from the AVA has often been blended away into regional wines, but with its volcanic soils and proximity to the San Pablo Bay bringing cooling influences, they love its concentrated power, naturally fresh acidity and savoury quality, and more forward-focused tannins versus the broader profile of Oakville.   Although Erickson is increasingly focused on Favia, he still consults for a handful of carefully selected estates – something he can’t see giving up. “It’s a great outlet,” he tells me, explaining how different it is to channel a client’s vision for a project, versus craft your own wine exactly the way you want. Much like the various crops they farm, it’s another way for them to learn, experiment and develop. And yet, “Presenting something that you’ve made to people and getting a response…” Erickson says. “I love that part of what we do.”  Two decades after Favia was born, they’ve received significant investment from the Huneeus family (which owns Quintessa), along with a new 86-acre property in Oakville, where they’ll soon be starting work on a new winery, taking the project to the next level. “We’re going to be doing exactly what we’ve done for 20-plus years, but now have an even bigger farm and more fruit trees and more gardens and more wine to share with people. And it’s just really fun,” says Annie, the excitement clear in her expression. They’ll be bringing back Sauvignon Blanc, which they’ve made in the past, and are making their first wine with a tiny plot of Malbec they planted – a variety they’re considering with climate change.  On paper, Favia and Erickson are a formidable duo – with CVs that offer a roll-call of Napa icons – and yet they are entirely unassuming. Their absolute passion for the vine, for farming, the region and their craft shines through; and while they might be as down-to-earth as they come, it’s already clear that Favia is destined to reach great heights.  The latest releases of Favia are available now 

Annie Favia and Andy Erickson are Napa royalty. As the 2021 vintage of their personal project, Favia, is released via La Place, we caught up with the couple about their label, estate and vision for the region

Exploring the wines of Favia, Annie Favia and Andy Erickson’s Napa project, and how it’s growing after two decades

Annie Favia and Andy Erickson’s Favia 

Growing up: Favia

Driving through Napa and Sonoma, the land still bears the scars of 2020. The wildfires that raged through the region have left a long-lasting mark, whether it’s lengthy reconstruction efforts or the stark, charred tree trunks that cover the mountains. But it’s more than that. To an outsider, the fires feel intangible, terrifying yet somehow conceptual. Talking to those that lived through them, however, makes you instantly realise quite how petrifying that season was. The trauma of those flames is still smouldering away.  In 2017, fires hit Northern California on 8th October, however most producers had already harvested. Indeed, the fire even crossed the Kistler property, but their vines helped act as a firebreak. Two years later the Kincade fire swept through Sonoma County at the end of October. But in 2020, the first fires arrived earlier. The LNU Lightning Complex started with what is known as the Hennessey fire on 17th August. Sparked by lightning after thunderstorms, the complex was a weave of 250 different fires that collectively raged through almost 150,000 hectares of the region. The damage was enormous: 1,491 buildings were destroyed and six people lost their lives. While the fire did diminish in size, it wasn’t entirely extinguished until 2nd October, almost a month and a half after it started.  Before the Lightning Complex had fully subsided, the Glass Fire attacked. The blaze started on 27th September, east of St Helena near the Silverado Trail, spreading north to Calistoga and then south and west, towards Santa Rosa. It burned until 20th October, encompassing over 27,000 hectares and taking over 1,500 buildings with it, including numerous wineries. It cut through Eisele Vineyard, across 90 acres of hillside and forcing them to rip up 1,000 vines. Fortunately they’d already picked all their fruit (finishing their harvest three days before the fire broke out, on 24th September). And this was all in the midst of Covid-19.  Wildfires aren’t new in Northern California, but they’re certainly more prevalent than ever before. Indeed, as Cory Empting – Director of Winegrowing at Promontory, Harlan and Bond – tells me, the region’s indigenous people, the Wappo, used to describe autumn as “smoky mountains”.  Paul Hobbs – who has been making wine in “the Valley” (as the locals would say) since the late 1970s – remembers a fire in the 1980s that burned its way along the Silverado Trail. “All it took was a gust of wind,” he says – and one flame turned into something uncontrollable in the blink of an eye. He remembers climbing up on a roof to see the sobering effects of the fire.  Perhaps partly due to this early exposure, fires have always been at the forefront of his mind when picking a site – avoiding rugged, dry areas like Diamond Mountain or Calistoga. And he is exacting with forest management of the sites he works – even on our wander around his Goldrock Estate vineyard, he notices some saplings that are troubling him, and calls over his vineyard manager to take a look, conscious to reduce the risk as much as possible. And he’s deservedly cautious. The 2017 vintage was his first working with Cleary Estate out in Freestone-Occidental, and he paid almost $2 million for fruit that he couldn’t use. The fire itself is one challenge, however vines are natural firebreaks so don’t tend to suffer much direct damage (although the heat from a blaze can sometimes scorch vines). The real threat, however, is in the air – smoke. But the science of smoke taint is complex, and poorly understood. Producers can send samples to laboratories to be tested for the compounds responsible for the taint (guaiacol and 4-methylguaiacol) but the exact level of perception isn’t known. These compounds also naturally occur in some varieties, eg Syrah, and come from oak barrels (in particular the toasting process).  Of course the impact of smoke is dependent on proximity to the fire, the intensity of the smoke, elevation and the wind. Hobbs explained how in 2020 much of the smoke from the Glass Fire stayed north for several days, but then the wind shifted and sent it south to the Bay Area. As smoke travels, and ages, the volatile compounds also degrade, so there is also a significant difference between the impact of “fresh” smoke, versus what Hobbs describes as “atmospheric” smoke. The latter may look bad, but it’s unlikely to hold significant taint, whereas if you’ve got fresh smoke, it’s “game over”.   Lots of producers do micro-ferments to look for smoke taint, testing to see if it’s worth the expense of picking the fruit and making the wine – however that’s also not a sure-fire way to know if you have smoke taint. The nature of these compounds means that they can lurk, undetectable in a wine, and emerge in bottle as hydrolysis occurs. “That’s why it’s so insidious,” Hobbs says.  If you’ve got smoke-tainted fruit, the options are limited. The compounds are concentrated in the skins, so the aim is generally to minimise skin contact. Indeed, some producers made rosé in 2020, having picked earlier, with higher acidity than normal. Otherwise you can use reverse osmosis or spinning cone (both expensive processes that are used for de-alcoholisation), or carbon fining – or a combination of all of the above – to try and strip out the smoky flavour. The result, as Mark De Vere MW at Robert Mondavi said of trials they’d done, it generally didn’t work, but if it did, “It took so much else out.” (Robert Mondavi ended up making almost no 2020 wine.)  *  Read anything about 2020 and there is a cacophony of opinion. “Everyone handled the vintage differently,” Cate Kistler of Occidental told me. They picked on 18th August, not in response to the fire, but because that was when the first fruit was ripe. They didn’t do any micro-ferments or send samples to labs (“We’re not data-crunching people,” Kistler says). The cost of picking was, for them, “a drop in the bucket” in comparison to farming the vineyards the rest of the year, so they tried to do what they could.  “It was going to be either Occidental, or nothing,” she said with a shrug. They took their time, committing to making every decision as if it was a normal year, finishing on 6th September just as the Labor Day heatwave hit. They didn’t use everything they picked, but they made all five of their single-vineyard wines – and the 2020s we tasted are glorious.   Some, like Colgin, didn’t make any wine at all, while many producers made around 40% less (such as Williams Selyem and Peter Michael). Many of the 2020s that will be released were picked before the fires struck. Cathy Corison had all her fruit safely in the winery more than two weeks before the Glass Fire hit, but the challenge was to keep the smoke out of the winery. She bought industrial grade air filters to shield her ferments. “They’re beautiful,” she says with a quietly proud smile.  At Dalla Valle, Maya Dalla Valle doesn’t pretend that it was an easy year, but she’s pleased with the wines they made (all with fruit picked before the Glass Fire). As ever, these are wines that speak of their year – which wasn’t just the fires, but a hot, dry year that (along with a block that was being re-grafted) cut their crop to a mere 2,700 cases in total. At Dominus, they did micro-ferments after the Lightning complex, and had picked their last row of fruit on the morning the Glass Fire broke out.  Steve Matthiasson – the leading viticulturalist who also has his eponymous label with his wife Jill – told me how it was set to be “an epic season” before the fires hit. He highlighted how the smoke meant there was less UV light reaching the grapes, and that meant the fruit wasn’t as phenolically ripe. They pick early, so had started harvest 10 days before the Glass Fire broke out. The Cabernet Sauvignon in their Phoenix vineyard was still out, but they managed to pick it the morning after the fire broke out, before the smoke was able to take effect.  Most who picked early are in agreement that the hot, dry conditions were in their favour. Promontory saw only eight inches of rain, versus the 30 of a normal year. But that hydric stress helped them – it meant the crop was small and the vines shifted to ripening the fruit earlier, so even though they picked on 22nd August they had no pyrazines. As Will Harlan says, in some ways, “The stars aligned”.  The 2017 vintage might have prompted people to start thinking about climate change, but 2020 was a real wake-up call for the region. It prompted Martin Reyes MW to try and create a community around climate action. Eventually, working alongside Anna Brittain, he founded Napa RISE (standing for Resilience Innovation Sustainability Empowerment), a climate and wine symposium that first took place in 2022 (with the 2023 symposium currently underway). It’s early days, but they’re “trying to build into the DNA [of Napa RISE] this notion of action”. He’s keen to avoid a conference focused on discussing concepts, but an industry convention that drives change.  One part of that conversation is inevitably fire – and a session last week focused on forestry management. “The relationship with fire we have is complicated – but it can be a healthy relationship,” Reyes tells me.   Controlled burning has long been a part of life for indigenous peoples – both in North America and Australia, where wildfires have now become a threat. In the US, controlled burning was officially banned in 1911 when the Weeks Act was introduced, but California is gradually realising the need for its reintroduction.  “Agroforestry was happening before conservation took it off the table,” Empting (of Domain W. Harlan) tells me. He talks about how when the previously evicted Miwok people were allowed to return to Yosemite, they were horrified by what they saw – where “conservation” had destroyed the ecosystems. For native peoples, seasonal work like controlled burns was a way of life – seen as their responsibility to the land. But it was a responsibility that colonialism robbed from them, and didn’t take on.  At the Pepperwood Preserve, native peoples do controlled burns. Empting visited to explore the practice and see if it’s something they could take up as part of their stewardship of the land. The challenge today is the paperwork – and politics. Permits are difficult to obtain, the fire department is reluctant and has to be involved, and then there are the neighbours to contend with.  Hobbs highlights that it’s not just that there aren’t enough controlled burns, but that manmade structures have taken over swathes of land – and they burn hotter, leading fires to rage in less predictable ways.  Of course, as with 2017, the 2020s are already being marred by rumour and reputation of a smoke-tainted year. The reality is so much more complex – and, although I haven’t tasted enough to make pronouncements on the vintage, there are some brilliant wines. Of course you’ll need to choose carefully, but for top producers there is nothing to be gained by releasing wine that is anything less than flawless.  While the fires have left scars, the land’s capacity for renewal is remarkable – with vibrant vegetation flourishing in amongst the scorched trees. The 2020 vintage wasn’t the first to see such challenges and it won’t be the last. The soils can recover, and so can the people, but a sustainable way to manage these threats is essential to long-term survival. Read more about California or browse all California listings

Wildfires have become a yearly occurrence for Napa and Sonoma – but what is their impact, and how can producers handle the effects? Sophie Thorpe spoke to some of Northern California’s leading producers to investigate the issue

Talking to Napa and Sonoma’s top producers about wildfires and the 2020 vintage – Paul Hobbs, Harlan, Kistler, Occidental, Promontory, Mondavi and more

Wildfires and the 2020 vintage in California

The way the wind blows

The 2021 vintage in Bordeaux is not another 2018, 2019 or 2020. Indeed, this is a year that is seemingly without precedent. It was a year first and foremost of the wine-grower. Forget the idea that the best wines are made with minimal intervention, naturally conjured from fine terroir and effortlessly evolving in the cellar: that’s an illusion at the best of times. To succeed in 2021, producers had to put in serious graft. They needed to be out amongst the vines day in, day out. And then they needed to follow that through in the winery. Several had already written off the year after hearing about the frost and mildew that plagued the growing season (about which you can read much more in our detailed report). In our view, that’s a mistake. It’s not the vintage of the century, and anyone would be foolish to pretend it is – but there are some brilliant wines, especially for those who are partial to more elegant styles, lower alcohol levels and freshness. It’s important to caveat that when we discuss a vintage en primeur, we are talking about the very crème de la crème of Bordeaux – the finest estates who have not only the region’s best-sited vineyards, but the necessary resources – the manpower, money and equipment – to be able to succeed. Our 10 days in the region revealed the full complexities of the year, one where it is nigh-on impossible to generalise. As Omri Ram at Ch. Lafleur told us, “There are hundreds and thousands of 2021s.” The key was being able to analyse what was happening in the vineyards – and then be able to act on it. Quickly. For Ram, with 24 people working 21 hectares, that was fortunately possible. At Ch. Lafite Rothschild, Technical Director Eric Kohler told us that the cost of production in 2021 was an almost incredible 45% higher than normal. Christian Moueix estimates his team spent 30% more hours in the vineyard than normal. At Ch. Ducru-Beaucaillou, they hired an additional 35 people to manage mildew amongst the vines in June and July (surplus to the normal 40), while at both Ch. Rauzan-Ségla and Les Carmes Haut-Brion they had enormous teams for the harvest – 150 each, harvesting and sorting at Rauzan-Ségla, and doing three or four passes through each plot at Carmes. At Smith Haut-Lafitte, they bought five additional tractors to ensure they could spray the entire property in one day. “All the challenges we could dream of happened,” said Jean-Basile Roland of Ch. Rauzan-Ségla. Because of these challenges, it’s a vintage that producers are justifiably proud of – for it was a hard-won battle, and Covid-19 was still a consideration. Yields across the region varied significantly. In total, the region produced 14% less than in 2020, but some estates reported a full crop. At others, they had the lowest yields since 1991 – largely due to mildew, although frost was a factor as well. Inevitably, estates working organically and biodynamically had more of a battle when it came to mildew so were more significantly impacted. Both elements had less of an impact than might be expected, however, as producers have learnt – and invested – after the severe frosts of 2017 and mildew of 2018. As already highlighted, this was a year of the grower; where the human hand was everything. There were key decisions to be made at every stage of the season and these influenced the style of wine produced. Again, from what we tasted there wasn’t a right or wrong decision to be made – but it’s important to emphasise the various elements that have defined the wines this year. First up was picking. In general, harvest dates were much later than we’ve seen in recent years – producers having to wait for ripeness to arrive in the year’s cooler conditions. Merlot started coming in at the end of September, and most finished picking their Cabernet by 18th October. The key decision was around the first weekend in October, when heavy rain was forecast, yet most Cabernet wasn’t yet ripe. Some rushed to pick their fruit, while others took the risk and waited. Those who held their nerve were rewarded; the storms were replaced by sunny days for key ripening. While recent years have seen producers waiting for phenolic ripeness, with sugar levels soaring in warm conditions, 2021 saw something different. At some estates, phenolic maturity arrived first, with the sugar never quite following; at others the phenolic, flavour and sugar ripeness all seemed to arrive at once. For the former, chaptalisation was necessary. This practice – the addition of sugar prior to fermentation to increase alcohol levels – was once the norm in marginal climates like Bordeaux, Burgundy, Champagne, the Loire and many more. Opinions on the topic are rife, with some winemakers extremely anti; from what we tasted, where well-judged and expertly managed, you can’t tell. There were a handful of wines with warming alcohol that doesn’t feel fully integrated, but where done well, chaptalisation has rounded the wine out – fleshing out the body with half a degree of alcohol or so. It’s also important to emphasise that chaptalisation is something we simply haven’t spoken about previously – at Ch. Margaux, Aurélien Valence highlighted that they even chaptalised a few parcels in 2019 and 2020, while some estates haven’t done so for decades. Some châteaux opted for reverse osmosis as an alternative way to concentrate the wines, generally on lower-tier wines. Given the year’s challenging conditions, producers didn’t face a crop of flawlessly clean fruit. It was a cool and damp year and sorting was essential. Optical sorters are now the norm at many addresses, but this year saw the addition of density baths at several estates (Chx Léoville and Langoa Barton, Angélus and Smith Haut-Lafitte, to name a few, following in the footsteps of the likes of Ausone). Indeed, just at Smith Haut-Lafitte, there were six stages of sorting across the vineyard and winery to ensure that they kept only the finest fruit. One point of discussion at almost every estate was how producers managed extraction. With the year’s wet conditions, berries were generally plump and dilution was a risk. The cooler weather also meant that tannins weren’t necessarily as ripe, although in terms of “IPT” (the Indice de Polyphénols Totaux – the level of tannins, a number that has started appearing on technical sheets and critic reports increasingly in recent vintages) 2021 had the same numbers as 2018, ’19 or ’20.  The difference, however, was that there isn’t the same stuffing to balance it – so it was essential that tannins were handled gently. Cold soaks were used at several addresses to extract colour and flavour, but not tannin; many opted for gentler and shorter maceration periods. Saignée – the act of bleeding off juice to concentrate what remains – was commonplace, and higher portions of press wine feature in several blends. Several producers noted that in particular the seeds or pips weren’t ripe this year, so it was important to avoid extracting tannins from them; it’s one reason for the significant portion (45%) of whole-bunch fermentation for the Grand Vin at Les Carmes Haut-Brion. The blends this year are in some instances atypical. On the Left Bank, the Merlot struggled with coulure (uneven fruit-set), meaning some wines have record-high proportions of Cabernet Sauvignon in the blend (a record 98% at Ducru-Beaucaillou, 96% at Lafite, 90% at Calon-Ségur, for example). Cabernet Franc seemed to thrive on both sides of the Gironde, and represents higher-than-normal percentages on the Right Bank (30% at L’Evangile, 60% at Angélus). You may also find a little more Petit Verdot in blends than normal – used to add both colour and spicy richness to the wines (for example, representing 6% at Pontet-Canet). Given the generally lighter style of the wines, élevage will be key. While of course this is not set yet, many producers have opted for lower levels of new oak and plan to leave the wines in barrel for slightly less time. As Noëmie Durantou Reilhac of Ch. l’Eglise-Clinet highlighted, this is to preserve the wines’ delicate tannins and aromas. At Ch. Rauzan-Ségla, Jean-Basile Roland noted that it was particularly important this year to use hot water and steam to extract the harshest tannins from barrels before they were filled. And so what of the style of the actual wines? Well, as you can tell, it is not easy to generalise. This is not a Left or Right Bank year, in our view, although we found a little more consistency amongst estates on the Right (and especially warmer Pomerol). Despite the fact that Merlot struggled a little on the Left, it doesn’t seem to have been such an issue on the Right Bank – it’s neither a Cabernet or Merlot vintage. Several producers were quick to declare it a “terroir” vintage – and certainly it seems that limestone and clay soils were an advantage – but terroir was not the only element at play. It really is a year that needs to be judged individually, per estate and wine. We noted in particular that some second wines have suffered from the selection required to achieve greatness in the Grand Vin. The best embraced the natural style of the vintage – working with the year’s elegance rather than battling it. There is an old-school charm to the finest wines, yet with a very modern fruit profile. “Modern classic” was a term that came up time and again, although we’re loathe to repeat it. At Vieux Château Certan, where Guillaume Thienpont has undoubtedly made one of the wines of the year, he described the wine as “two-thirds perfume, one-third flavour”, while Pierre-Olivier Clouet at Cheval Blanc – another overperformer this year – considers it “academic” rather than “classic”, built on dual pillars of tannin and acidity.  The best wines have fresh acidity, delicate and often floral aromatics, with crunchy fruit – often more at the red end of the spectrum. Alcohols tend to sit between 12 and 13% (a little higher on the Right Bank) and the tannins are not negligible, often providing a chalky grip, and they are surprisingly approachable now. They won’t be wines to cellar for the serious long-term, but will be one of those vintages to consistently overperform – surprising blind tasters with their charm as they evolve in bottle. Given all this, it’s no surprise that producers struggled to find a comparative vintage. Faced with such tricky conditions just a decade ago, producers wouldn’t have been able to make the wines they did today. The 1990s were consistently used as a reference point in style, but more recently 2001, 2008 or possibly 2014 offer the best comparison in terms of style – if not climatic conditions. The wines are more concentrated than 2017, and as is very clear, drastically different to 2018, ’19 or ’20. The vast majority of what we offer en primeur is red, and that is where the focus of our report lies, but this was an exceptional vintage for whites. Several estates feel they’ve made the best wines in their history – and certainly from our tastings that is true. At Ch. Margaux, Aurélien Valence said they thought 2017 was their best Pavillon Blanc, but 2021 exceeds it. The cool conditions that made the year challenging for reds was perfect for the white grapes, which benefitted from the long, slow growing season – offering aromatic ripeness, yet vibrant acidity. They really are superb. Crops in Sauternes were decimated by frost unfortunately (Ch. Suduiraut has just 500 cases of its Grand Vin to offer the world), but what little we tasted was similarly outstanding. Buy what you can of these increasingly rare and special wines, made at almost illogical expense. Bordeaux 2021: the vintage in summary A complicated year, but with some brilliant wines In places, frost and mildew means yields are down by as much as 50% Producers needed the resources to handle everything nature threw at them For reds, quality is not homogenous, but the best are vibrant and crunchy, with lower alcohols, chalky tannins and pretty aromatics Very hard to compare to other vintages, but 2001, 2008 and 2014 are the closest in style An exceptional vintage for dry whites, and tiny volumes of excellent sweet whites Explore all 2021 listings or read more Editorial 

Our team spent 10 days in Bordeaux tasting the 2021 vintage – a year that is far from simple. Frost and mildew made for challenging conditions, but the wines shouldn’t be written off. This was a year where tasting was essential and it’s impossible to talk in generalisations. Here, we dig into why

Your one-stop guide to a complicated Bordeaux en primeur vintage that is hard to compare to other vintages, but 2001, 2008 and 2014 are the closest in style

Bordeaux 2021: the human hand

The 2020 vintage in California is not one that the state’s natives are likely to forget. Wildfires ravaged the region, and the wines – now being released – are being tainted just by the idea of the smoke that those fires produced. But there is much more to be said about the year – which was also harvested and made in the midst of the covid pandemic, only adding to the immense stress of the season.  The winter was relatively warm and dry, with cool weather at flowering, a mild spring and then a hot, dry summer, although there continued to be a significant diurnal shift – perfect for ripening grapes, retaining freshness and developing aromatics. The heat struck just as producers like Cathy Corison were picking, and – unlike in 2018 or 2019 when the harvest was long – winemakers mostly looked to get the fruit in as quickly as possible. Almost everyone agrees that 2020 was set to be a fantastic vintage before the fires – with small, thick-skinned berries that had great promise. As Steve Matthiasson told us, “It was going to be an epic season.”  It’s important to be aware of the key dates for the fires. The LNU Lightning Complex started on 17th August, however it was the Glass Fire that posed the most significant threat to Napa, with that second blaze sparked on 27th September near the Silverado Trail, east of St Helena.  There are producers that chose to make no wine in 2020 (including Colgin, Joseph Phelps and Shafer), producers who made all their wines, and producers who made a reduced range. Insurance was a challenge. Those who had crop insurance weren’t able to claim if they picked any fruit – so many didn’t take the risk of harvesting what could have been flawless fruit, but also could have been tainted, leaving growers in the lurch, while those that farm their own vineyards were much more likely to give it a go. Some producers were able to share the financial burden with growers, but that wasn’t a viable choice for everyone.  Many producers frantically tested for the phenolic compounds responsible for smoke taint, but the local laboratories couldn’t handle the influx, with tests taking weeks. Some resorted to sending samples to as far away as Australia, while others were fortunate enough to be able to test in house. Mike and Leah Smith of Myriad Cellars, for example, tested all their fruit twice, sending it to Canada, to guarantee there were no free or bound phenols that could taint the wine. Togni reportedly tested their wines, but – having received the official all-clear and bottled the wines – decided not to release them as they weren’t quite convinced.  Micro-ferments were another option to help producers decide whether or not to pick, in theory testing to see if the smoke taint emerged once the fruit was fermented. The nature, however, of the compounds responsible for the taint means that they can emerge in bottle rather than immediately, meaning this offered no guarantees. There were so many complex factors at play, reputational and financial, as well as practical, that made the year a quagmire for producers to navigate. But it doesn’t mean the year should be written off entirely by wine lovers – we’ve tasted some beautiful wines from the vintage that are more than worthy of your attention.  Producers are generally divided by those who picked before and after the Glass Fire – and those who picked before that fateful date in Napa had no issues with smoke taint. There are many factors when it comes to smoke taint (covered more extensively here), including the distance from the fire and the direction of the wind, making it an inexact science. As Steve Matthiasson flagged, however, there was a challenge with ripening in 2020 – with the haze from fires reducing the light level and meaning some grapes weren’t necessarily as phenolically ripe as normal. This, combined with the fact that smoke taint compounds are held in the skins, means that cautious producers tended towards lighter extraction, and in a handful of instances producers even made rosé instead of red wine.  The hot, dry growing season meant that harvest dates were naturally set to be early, but producers who already tend to pick on the earlier side were particularly favoured. Corison had all her fruit in two and a half weeks before the Glass Fire. Her challenge was to ensure smoke didn’t get into the winery, tainting the ferments rather than fruit on the vine. She installed two industrial-grade air filters to keep the smoke out and the resulting wines are “beautiful”. The key for her was to pick as fast as she could, but the ripening season was “almost perfect”, although yields are down around 25% because of the hot conditions.  Maya Dalla Valle is another producer who made a full vintage – one she’s proud of despite it being the most stressful she’s ever produced. Their team picked in the first week of September. They washed the grapes – something that some producers do as standard (eg Dominus) – just in case there was any ash that had drifted from the first fire, using two vibrating sorting tables to shake off the excess water before it went into tank. They also chose to use a little less new oak at first, but after the first racking upped the proportions.  At Dominus, the team picked between 2nd and 27th September, with yields 40% lower than normal due to the heat and drought. They found extra selection was required with shrivelled berries from the dramatic heat spikes seen during the season. Robert Mondavi, however, only managed to make the early-picked whites and Pinot Noir from their more coastal sites, with no Cabernet from 2020.   The conditions forced the team at Promontory to pick early, and while they were already pulling back on harvest dates, they feel the 2020 season was a nudge they needed – a risk that has more than paid off with the stunning wine they produced. For Will Harlan and Cory Empting, the dry start to the season meant the vines and cropload were small, allowing the fruit to ripen sufficiently in the compact season. For them, the year is closest to 2011 or 1998, a year that will likely be consistently underrated and overperform. As vines act as a natural firebreak, few vineyards suffered any long-term damage – however Eisele is an exception, with 90 acres of hillside lost, and 1,000 vines that will need replanting. Fortunately, all their fruit was picked before the fire raged through the property.   With so much unknown about smoke taint, it’s unsurprising that critics seem to be cautious about the year. Reviews and scores are mixed. Vinous’s Antonio Galloni is quick to applaud the efforts producers made in the remarkable year, but feels that some of the wines aren’t very good. He notes, as Steve Matthiasson did, that with nature forcing some producers’ hands with harvest dates, some wines have coarse tannins, however he finds less pronounced smoke taint than in the 2017s.  Jeb Dunnuck advises that it is a year to approach “with extreme caution”, given the unpredictability of smoke taint, however states that “there are some terrific wines” – highlighting those from Bond, Carter, Crocker & Starr, Dalla Valle, Harlan, Paul Hobbs and Spottswoode, to name a few.   Lisa Perrotti-Brown MW (The Wine Independent) compares the growing season to that of 2017, but feels the resulting wines – at their best – are riper and weightier, with more purity. Although there are some wines marked by smoke taint, others are “wonderfully impressive” (indeed, she’s already given Harlan and Promontory 100 points).   The 2020 vintage is far from simple, but it shouldn’t be dismissed totally. There are some beautiful wines, totally unmarred by the year’s conditions. We won’t pretend there aren’t wines that are lesser, although we have to admit this is on hearsay alone based on our tastings so far, but – at the top of the quality spectrum, where finances allow the attention to detail required to achieve excellence – there is nothing for producers to gain by releasing flawed wines. Take these wines one by one, assessing their worth and value, and you’re guaranteed to be rewarded.  The vintage in brief  -  A vintage set to be remembered for both wildfires and the covid pandemic  -  Not every producer in the region made wine, with smoke taint an issue for some  -  A challenging year that favoured producers who pick early  -  A hot, dry season that made for low yields (reduced by 20-50%) and concentrated wines  -  Rich, ripe and concentrated  -  Despite the challenges, there are some stunning wines to be found  Browse all 2020 Napa listings or read more about California, including our dive into the issues surrounding wildfires and smoke taint  

No one is likely to forget the 2020 vintage – least of all Californians who saw their state swept by wildfires. We caught up with some of Napa’s leading producers to talk about the rest of the growing season, the implications of the fires and the style of the wines that were produced

Everything you need to know about 2020 in Napa – a challenging year with wildfires, yet some stunning wines. We talk to top producers about the vintage.

Napa 2020 vintage report

Napa 2020: digging into the difficult year 

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