The Wine Collector

Practical wine collecting advice from Steve Bachmann, Vinfolio's CEO

 
19
Nov
2009

Fine wine prices continue to rise; driven by Asian demand

Categories: Asia , Auctions , Wine price indexes

WinePrices.com's wine price indexes continued to rise strongly in October based on 14 auctions worldwide, three of which were in Hong Kong. Of US$25.8 million in proceeds from these auctions, US$13.2 million or 51% was spent in Hong Kong.

The top three most actively traded fine wine indexes were up 8%-14% in October after increasing 9%-12% in September.  These indexes are up a stunning 44%-64% year to date.  Wine investors with the stomach to have invested when the economic outlook was bleak are now being amply rewarded.

See below for a table of key stats on all of the indexes and the full summary results page for trading metrics information (and archives from prior months).  Note: each index equaled 100 as of January 2005.

Observations

  • Investment grade Bordeaux, which continues to experience high demand from Asia, is leading the pack in terms of returns.
  • Positive year-on-year growth - The majority of indexes are now in positive territory when measured on a year-on-year basis.
  • The California 100 index has shown little appreciation over the past five years (in last place based on its index value) and it's been the worst performing index year to date.  I suspect major contributing factors are the weak U.S. economy and relatively tepid international demand for the wines which comprise the California 100 index. Historically, virtually all of these wines were sold to oversubscribed mailing lists comprised largely of U.S. wine collectors and enthusiasts.  Now that wine auction demand is shifting towards Asia, the relative lack of exposure and access to California's top brands among Asian wine collectors is hurting these brands' secondary market price performance.  U.S. wines, in general, are relatively hard to find in Asia and most brands seem to be ignoring the opportunity (if the U.S.'s very minor presence at the recent Hong Kong International Wine Fair is an indication of interest).
  • Vinfolio's Asian experience confirms these trends.  The first of five offers drawn from a US$3+ million cellar that we began offering yesterday through our U.S. and Hong Kong offices is already 75% sold out in 24 hours with the majority of the spending derived from Asia.
P.S. Stay tuned for November results from 17 worldwide auctions (results will be compiled by mid December although individual auction results appear on WinePrices.com as they are added).
3 comments:

I agree that HK wine auctions, and Chinese consumption patterns used as a measure of the Asian region point to a growth pattern of wine sales increasing.

However here in Korea we were badly credit crunched with wine sales dropping by 50% volume Jan 2009 compared to Jan 2008. Fine wines and premium Bordeaux and California wines continue to sell at high prices and have not been so badly hit by this year's slash and burn wine sales, as Dept. Stores and retailers were overstocked.

Long term, Asia will drive global demand, no doubt about it.

For more info in the wine scene in Korea and wine and Korean food matching, see my blog at www.winekorea.blogspot.com

Posted by Joshua Hall at Sunday November 29, 2009

Agree on Asia. It's interesting that the California wines don't fare well there, since we have such a large Asian population and relative short plane flight compared to Europe. It's a clear growth area for wineries, as is Latin America.

Posted by wine clubs at Tuesday December 8, 2009

Dears,
I am a southamerican traveller and Latin America is not much "clean" than you are thinking.
The new problem for the winery productors are the open sky mines.
The Nature and the excellent greaps from Latin America are in risk.
You can get more information : http://www.noalamina.org

Posted by Sur at Tuesday December 29, 2009






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