The 2008 Bordeaux en primeur tastings are under way and, not surprisingly, trade attendance is down almost 10% (see Decanter.com story) and this year has its own issues as the market struggles to adapt to the realities of the current economy (see NY Times story).
Why should collectors bother to buy Bordeaux futures this year?
They shouldn't.
Here are the typical reasons cited to buy futures, none of which apply at the moment:
- Secure your supply - Your favorite wines won't sell out in this economy and with an average vintage. Availability of different bottle sizes later shouldn't be an issue either.
- Obtain better pricing by buying early - All signs are that the chateaux are going to set unrealistically high prices. Wait it out; they'll come down later. Moreover, why tie up capital for 18 months when you can buy other (better) vintages, all of which have suffered price declines in the past 6 months?
- Ensure perfect provenance -They'll be plenty of original wood cases to buy later as soon as the wines are bottled that come straight through the distribution chain to you.
Moreover, why take the risk that your retailer, or someone in their supply chain, goes out of business in the 18 months to 2 years before you take delivery? Anything can happen in the current environment.
Bottom line: Ignore the 2008 Bordeaux futures campaign.
P.S. For prior posts on related topics, read Fixing the Bordeaux futures market and Wine futures and pre-arrivals: what's the difference?
