The Wine Collector

Thank you for showing us it's NOT time to buy!
But we understand you want to get rid of your stock before prices drop another 20% or more, as they just did in the past 2 months.

Mike, you're entitled to your opinion about where prices are headed (for wine or stocks) but please don't question my motives for writing this post with your conspiracy theory that it's all about my self interest as a wine retailer.

The obvious extrapolation of recent trends is exactly why people miss bottoms in markets. I know a lot of professional money managers and the theme I constantly hear is that timing the bottom is a pure guessing game and it's usually six months after the fact when it's clear when the bottom occurred. My post was not about trying to claim prices had bottomed as I don't think anyone can say that with certainty. But if one is investing with a longer term horizon as one should be with wine, and might otherwise be moving money into stocks (as many professionals are in fact doing), then I stand by my comments, not to mention the hard facts, that wine has proven itself to be an attractive investment alternative to stocks.

When prices go up, we should buy before those same wines become too expensive (or to make some theoretical profits). When prices drop, we should buy as there are many bargains to be made.

I don't blame you guys wine merchants. It's just funny to see every time your new reason to say "buy now, it's the best time".