The Wine Collector

Practical wine collecting advice from Steve Bachmann, Vinfolio's CEO

 
10
Sep
2008

Winners and losers from Amazon.com's wine market entry

Categories: Market-related , Retailing

It's been over six months since I wrote Interpreting Amazon's move into selling wine.  With Amazon in the news again today (see Reuters story) and a buzz in Napa Valley from meetings Amazon has been holding with wineries, it seemed time for an update on Amazon's plans and an assessment of who will emerge as winners and losers.

The "facts" (as best they can be determined)

  • U.S.-produced wine only (at least initially)
  • Goal of 5,000 unique wines at launch (which is scheduled for October according to Reuters); Note: I've heard Amazon's ambition is far higher (think "world's largest wine selection")
  • Producers need to consign only a minimum of two cases of each item to New Vine Logistics (NVL), the Napa-based logistics partner Amazon is using to fulfill orders. 
  • Each unique SKU requires the winery to pay initial regulatory fees of about $400 for label registration in 26 states (the initial coverage area; NVL can support more) plus lesser annual renewal fees.
  • Each item must retail for a minimum of $12 and the winery maintains control of the retail price.
  • The winery receives 47% of the retail price when sold.
  • Buyers seeking "sold out" items can request to be auto-notified when back in stock.
  • Buyers who subscribe to the Amazon Prime (free two-day shipping for an annual fee of $79) will be able to use it (for a minimum of a 2-bottle purchase).
  • As with any Amazon-sold item, consumers can post positive (or negative) reviews online.

Why some wineries will agree

  • If you make more wine than you can sell, retaining 47% is not much different than selling to distributors (and far better than wine going unsold).  Moreover, Amazon provides a turnkey approach to getting one-stop distribution to larger market states.  This might particularly appeal to new brands or those with limited resources to invest in staff and support systems.
  • Retail price control stays with the winery.
  • Only minimal stock (2 cases) need be provided per item.

Why some wineries will NOT agree

  • If you can sell your wine directly or through other established channels (such as directly to retailers) and keep 100% (or something much higher than 47%) of the retail price, you're probably way ahead even after absorbing other costs.  This tends to be the case with higher-priced wines which are often allocated.
  • With 5,000+ SKUs, buyers still need to find the wine to buy it.  Selling through Amazon does not eliminate a brand's marketing investment requirements.
  • For a winery with a large number of SKUs, the initial regulatory filing fees per SKU may put some off.
  • Some will argue that Amazon's 100% online approach (where there's no human to consult for advice and recommendations) is too impersonal and doesn't deliver the brand experience desired by the winery.

 Winners

  • Amazon -  The above model combined with Amazon's online marketing skillset, customer base of 100 million accounts, market clout, and sheer execution capabilities, is bound to be successful, at least with lower-priced, higher production wines.
  • Certain wineries where the business model offered fits their needs.
  • Consumers who appreciate the one-stop, transactional convenience of Amazon, especially those who've already paid to be Amazon Prime subscribers, as free delivery levels the playing field with local shops.
  • Domestic wine industry - More direct-to-consumer selling ultimately helps generate broader acceptance of this method of distribution which will, in turn, increase consumer access (and wine sales for the industry) and bring more pressure to modernize antiquated direct shipping law.
  • New Vine Logistics who just got a huge new customer, not to mention a serious endorsement that should help it attract more direct winery business.

 Losers

  • Wine retailers that sell "mainstream" wine (whether offline or online) as they'll now have a significant new competitor.
  • Winery logistics competitors of NVL.
  • Distributors, as Amazon's move helps erode their state-specific market controls (even though NVL will go through the three-tier system in at least some states).

 Neutral/Unaffected

  • Fine wine retailers who deal in collectible, allocated, imported, and higher-priced point wines.
  • Certain wineries producing higher-priced wine at modest-to-low production levels who can sell all they can produce already at higher margins than Amazon is offering. Moreover, many of these wineries also prefer to control the customer interaction with their brand more closely and will shun distribution outlets that might "commoditize" their brand.
  • Winery ecommerce systems providers might lose some winery prospects who decide to just "outsource" their ecommerce to Amazon.  However, basic economics still favor wineries developing at least some direct-to-consumer capability.

Your opinion

How do you think Amazon's move will play out?

P.S.  Other blog posts of note on this topic include the Winery Web Site Report's Details on Amazon's Upcoming Wine Program and Jeff Stai on Amazon.com's Wine Program, and Classicwine.com's Will Amazon Do for Wine What it has Done For Books?

10 comments:

This is certainly entertaining all the speculation around the Amazon launch. This will be good for the industry as it will drive more people to the web. May be bad for the industry as regulators may scrutinize more? "Consignment " hmmm regulators have fun.

Project selection of 5000 to worlds largest will be entertaining as I am confused what will move.

Pricing model good for consumer that is preferred Amazon member.

In reference to NVL competition loser-NOT. NVL has yet to prove it can make money seeking additional as we speak and look at the margins- this will create a huge opportunity for its competitors. The vultures are circling based upon this reinvention.

This is all going to be entertaining at best!

Posted by Scott Jones at Thursday September 11, 2008

This is some interesting stuff, many people have tried this model, and many more are actively following this with the hopes of learning where others make mistakes in the online arena. And thanks for the mention of my classicwines piece! I still think the Kindle will be used at some point, and would be a waste if it wasn’t. Kindle owners are an automatic built in demographic:

1) They bought new technology at a premium, so they are not shy to embrace the “new” and have the cash to do it.
2) In an effort to justify the device, Amazon and the owners are both using them for different purposes, many people in literary circles are using them for reading proofs, uploading emails (at a per email upload price) and any and all electronic texts for on-the-go reading.
3) The fact that you can have content such as blogs and websites downloaded via cellular xmission for FREE is what really opens things up. Having a comparative wine list with you 24/7 will make a WS Buyer’s Guide tear-out look like a piece of chiseled stone.

I am curious to see how well this works for everyone else besides Amazon. I think the larger market wines will win with this, the already well known names that you see in the grocery stores versus the harder to find and allocated wines, and Amazon seems to know that via their list so far.
This model also bodes well for a more transparent wine market throughout the US, I bet FreeTheGrapes is pretty happy with this… and I bet wine.com is dead behind the eyes on this one…

Posted by Kasey Carpenter at Thursday September 11, 2008

An excellent summary of the facts, pros & cons, and affected parties. I wish I'd written it! Thanks for linking to my blog.

Posted by Mike Duffy at Friday September 12, 2008

it's an interesting move, but one that I think will turn out to be less significant that many assume unless Amazon really expands the program to cover a majority of the wines out there.

1) the common, everyday wines are still ones that people will want to pickup at the market as they shop for food. It's the "grab a bottle for dinner tonight" impulse and no online program will satisfy that.

2) Wine retailers will retain their local customers for the wines that they carry in common with Amazon for much the same reason. This will be less true if the retailer's customer base is spread out over a large area as the convenience of shipping is larger then.

3) Online retailers have little to fear either in the short term IF they sell mostly fine and allocated wine AND if they also sell older wines.

Online buyers are driven by either knowing that retailer and their reputation or by searches on Winesearcher.com, winezap.com etc. The main worry I'd have if I sold wine online would be that Amazon would overlap my stock and compete with me on price. That WILL be a threat to online sales if my online sales. To the degree that my wines are things Amazon can't get (older wines from cellars, allocted wines) the threat is less.

Service will be a differentiating factor here too - if I buy a case of high end wine in July but have it held for shipment until the weather has cooled in November that's important to me. Is Amazon able to do that? Or will we see a ton of heat damaged wine out there because they'll ship that case of wine in 105F weather?


Also I wonder about the uptake of this by wineries. I think you're spot on as to which will be interested, but if I were a winery concerned about MY rep, I'd want to know far more about storage of my wine and shipment of it during the May - October timeframe. No, this isn't totally under my control when I sell to a distributor either, but somehow Amazon feels different as if more of any negatives will be borne by the winery.

Posted by rick at Friday September 12, 2008

On Rick's prior comment about how NVL/Amazon will ship wine in warmer weather, I just wanted to point out that New Vine Logistics developed its own wine shipper that might be what they'll deploy to solve this issue. I wrote a post describing it back on January 22, 2008 called "The perfect wine shipper?". Here's a link: http://www.vinfolio.com/thewinecollector/2008/01/the-perfect-wine-shipper.jsp

The only snag is that this packaging is potentially too expensive to be used, even with higher volumes (especially if free shipping for Amazon Prime members is eating into product margins already).

Posted by Steve Bachmann at Friday September 12, 2008

They SAY that it will work. Will it? if I buy rare, expensive wine from Amazon and it fails.. will they replace THAT wine?

As a wine buyer I have zero reason to take that risk when I can go to Vinfolio, Premier Cru, Woodland Hills etc etc and simply have them hold the wine until temperature is no longer an issue.

As a winery... if my wine is shipped and heat damaged what does it do to my rep with the customer who may well pass it off as a flawed wine vs a damaged one?

Posted by rick at Friday September 12, 2008

hi Steve - Nice summary! One thing unmentioned (unless I missed it) is that Amazon will give many wineries access to states for which they currently don't have any direct shipping options - like MA and NJ. That's kinda cool.

Speaking of cool... on the question of Summer shipping... you'll notice that Amazon is starting this right after Summer. When I met with the buyer, he did acknowledge that Summer shipping is an issue they will have to address, and they are actively looking at their options. But for now they wanted to get the ball rolling with the basic setup.

Posted by el jefe at Friday September 12, 2008

Having worked with Amazon in the past, they do great things but they are far from perfect, I suspect their new play will be just another channel that wineries can participate in. Everyone can imagine what Amazon can do for them if successful, sell a lot of wine, but what if not?

Amazon has issues, and they like just in time ordering from suppliers so imagine them selling out hundreds of small wineries inventories - 2 cases can go quickly. Good luck getting them to reorder small quantities, you can be sold out on Amazon for weeks or even months until they submit an order. For large high volume brands this is not a problem, but for small players its a lot of work for 2 cases and 2 cases is not going to change anyone's business very much. Not to mention you don't get the customer at the end of the day.


Posted by Cornelius Geary at Saturday September 13, 2008

"Not to mention you don't get the customer at the end of the day."

This is an excellent point - if you cannibalize your own online sales you're losing money and the customer. Not really an issue if you don't sell direct but if you do you'll want to watch your analytics carefully.

Posted by rick at Saturday September 13, 2008

I've heard a rumor that Amazon might add winery URLs to the item pages which could help build direct customer access for wineries. Their rationale might be (I'm speculating) that most of their own buyers would be ordering small quantities or wines from multiple producers so providing the URL wouldn't cannibalize their own sales much. Moreover, presumably the winery would maintain the same retail price on its own site and Amazon's which still leaves the Amazon buyer with lower shipping costs and faster delivery (especially if Prime member), a single reliable supplier instead of potentially dozens of individual wineries, and perhaps access in states the winery won't ship to.

Posted by Steve Bachmann at Saturday September 13, 2008






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